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The work of J.E. was supported by the United Kingdom STFC Grants ST/X000753/1 and ST/T00679X/1, and that of M.F. was also supported by the United Kingdom STFC Grant ST/X000753/1. The work of J.U. and V.V. was supported by European Regional Development Fund through the CoE program grant TK133 and by the Estonian Research Council grant PRG803. The work of V.V. was also partially supported by the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program under the Marie Sk lodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 101065736.
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The process whereby the supermassive black holes populating the centers of galaxies have been assembled remains to be established, with the relative importance of seeds provided by collapsed Population-III stars, black holes formed in nuclear star clusters via repeated mergers, or direct collapses of protogalactic disks yet to be determined. In this paper we study the prospects for casting light on this issue by future measurements of gravitational waves emitted during the inspirals and mergers of pairs of intermediate-mass black holes, discussing in particular the roles of prospective measurements by LISA and the proposed atom interferometers AION and AEDGE. We find that, the expected number of detectable IMBH binaries is O(100) for LISA and AEDGE and O(10) for AION in low-mass seeds scenarios and goes down to O(10) for LISA and below one for AEDGE and AION in high-mass seed scenarios. This allows all of these observatories to probe the parameters of the seed model, in particular if at least a fraction of the SMBHs arise from a low-mass seed population. We also show that the measurement accuracy of the binary parameters is, in general, best for AEDGE that sees very precisely the merger of the binary.
Most galaxies contain supermassive black holes (SMBHs) heavier than 106M⊙ [1], and the existence of black holes (BHs) with masses between a few and ∼ 80M⊙ has been established by observations of X-ray binaries [2] and by the measurements of gravitational waves (GWs) with frequencies ∼ 100 Hz emitted during their mergers [3–5]. Various other observations point to the existence of intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) with masses in the range 104 − 106M⊙, but their mass function and redshift distribution is known only very poorly [6]. This lack of information about IMBHs impedes our understanding of how SMBHs have been assembled [7]. The main possibilities for seeding SMBH assembly include collapsed Population-III stars [8], BHs formed in nuclear star clusters via repeated mergers [9–11] or direct collapses of protogalactic disks in which fragmentation is suppressed [12–18]. All of these mechanisms are capable of reproducing the properties of the observed SMBH population for suitable values of assembly parameters such as accretion rates, but can differ significantly in their predictions for the spectrum of IMBH mergers at different redshifts, see [19] for an overview. Signatures of these mechanisms may include either light seeds, with masses ∼ 102 − 103M⊙ or heavy seeds, with masses ∼ 104 − 105M⊙, at z ≲ 10. These are currently unconstrained by data, but can in principle be probed by future GW and other measurements [20–26]. The purpose of this paper is to investigate what progress can be made in distinguishing between the SMBH assembly scenarios with planned future GW experiments in light of recent data on nHz GWs from pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments, highlighting the potential capabilities of atom interferometers. NANOGrav [27] and other PTA experiments [28–30] have recently reported the observation of a stochastic background of GWs at frequencies in the nHz range, for which the most conservative astrophysical interpretation is that binary systems of SMBHs are emitting them with masses ∼ 109M⊙ [31–34]. Naive extrapolation of binary merger models to lower BH masses suggests that GWs from IMBH binaries may be observable at higher frequencies between 10−5 Hz and 1 Hz, for example by the LISA space-borne laser interferometer experiment or atom interferometer experiments [35]. In principle, there are two regimes where the formation channels of the SMBHs may be distinguished. Either at z ≳ 7 when the seeds are assembling and scaling relations are not that strong [36, 37], or by observing the low mass occupation fraction of dwarf galaxies and dark matter halos at more recent times [19, 38]. The extrapolation to higher frequencies of a model that can fit the NANOGrav background [34] predicts that the majority of detectable binaries will be at z < 7, so the focus of this study is to constrain the latter. Our work complements analogous studies that have been performed with electromagnetic observations of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) [39–42].
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We have described in this paper the capabilities of the planned space-borne laser interferometer LISA and the proposed atom interferometers AEDGE and AION-1km to observe mergers of intermediate-mass BHs, measure their parameters, and discriminate between different seed scenarios for the assembly of SMBHs. We have considered the extended Press-Schechter to model the coalescences of galactic halos and estimate a rate for mergers of SMBHs that is compatible with the PTA signals for GWs in the nHz range. We have extrapolated this model to different SMBH seed scenarios by parametrizing the low mass cutoff of the massive BH population. Using this parametrization, we have estimated the possible rates for IMBH mergers, and assessed their detectability and measurability.
We have found that, although LISA has a high rate for observing the early infall stages of IMBH binaries for all the masses studied, this detector loses many binaries as the merger time approaches. Both AEDGE and AION-1km have higher rates than LISA for detections within one minute of the merger. We have shown that AEDGE has the best perspectives for detecting mergers of IMBHs weighing ≲ 104M⊙ whereas LISA has better perspectives for IMBHs weighing ≳ 105M⊙. The better detection rates translate into smaller uncertainties in the measurements by AEDGE of binary parameters for IMBHs weighing ≲ 105M⊙. We have estimated the accuracy with which a lower cutoff on the BH seed mass, mcut could be extracted from the prospective GW data. We find that both LISA and AEDGE could determine mcut with precision ≲ 20% if mcut ≲ 104M⊙, whereas LISA could determine mcut with better precision than AEDGE if mcut ≳ 104M⊙. We also find that both LISA and AEDGE have interesting capabilities for distinguishing between scenarios with different mixtures of seeds with 102 and 105M⊙. AION1km could also provide some information, particularly in scenarios with a population of low-mass seeds. Our results indicate that the space-borne laser interferometer LISA and atom interferometers AEDGE and AION-1km have interesting and complementary capabilities for measuring IMBH mergers and distinguishing between different seed scenarios for the assembly of SMBHs. We should emphasize that our study has been exploratory and should be complemented by an improved modelling of the SMBH seed scenarios and more detailed studies of the instrumental capabilities of GW interferometers. It would also be interesting to extend the analysis to assess the prospects for multimessenger observations and study the prospects for measuring higher-order multipoles of the GW signals that would allow for example for new probes of strong gravity.
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